Overseas warehouse replenishment strategy
overview based on business conditions
l Replenishment is a kind of demand satisfaction for production or sales needs. To make up less, it is easy to be out of stock, resulting in operating losses and affecting customer experience; if making up more, it is easy to produce slow sales, leading to increased storage costs and limited cash flow. From the bottom-level logic, replenishment is nothing more than choosing the right quantity at the right time, and on the basis of ensuring supply, weighing the risks of out-of-stock and slow sales, and making a relatively balanced choice. On the basis of the underlying logic, plus factors such as product, warehouse, and price, you can get the 5R principle of replenishment strategy: Right product, Right quantity, Right place, Right time, Right cost. The right product, at the right time, use Replenishing the correct quantity at the correct price and sending it to the correct warehouse basically fully describes all the factors that we need to consider for replenishment. In combination with the actual situation of the company, an S, namely Supplier, must be added to the replenishment. Different suppliers have different delivery accuracy rates. For suppliers with punctual delivery, only the delivery time given by the supplier is required. For suppliers whose delivery dates are often inaccurate, based on the supplier’s historical delivery accuracy data, different delivery cycles need to be recalculated, which is 1S.
l In the actual business situation: the 5R+1S strategy should be considered in the supplementary shipment.
l The replenishment of overseas warehouses is divided into two modules, replenishment and delivery, which are independent and interrelated. This decomposition method conforms to the current company's business logic. Each module has its own business logic and operates according to its own characteristics. When replenishing goods, consider multiple overseas warehouses as a whole, and coordinate inventory and demand to estimate and produce demand. At the time of delivery, according to the quantity of goods, the goods will be shipped in separate warehouses.
l Replenishment is also called replenishment order. Regarding multiple overseas warehouses as a whole, placing orders for replenishment will help integrate and allocate resources, and will also reduce the quantity difference caused by supplier MOQ.
l In the 5R+1S strategy, the replenishment side needs to use 3R+1S, Right product, Right quantity, Right time, and Supplier. That is, at the right time, for the right product, order the right quantity from different suppliers.
l The current replenishment mode is close to the regular order mode. Replenishment is made once a month, and the order is added once, with an interval of about half a month between the two. The advantage of this model is that it has low system requirements, is convenient to operate, and is convenient for suppliers to schedule production.
l If the demand for replenishment can be made in time based on changes in demand and sales trends at the same time, and intelligent replenishment can be achieved, that is, according to the system logic, the quantity that needs to be replenished will be generated daily and replenishment. That will smooth our replenishment quantity, reduce possible inventory redundancy, and improve timeliness. However, from the perspective of suppliers, the number of single orders will decrease, and the frequency of orders will increase, which is not conducive to supplier scheduling.
l Through the way of pre-order and frequent orders, smooth each other, replenishment can use the following strategy: according to the seasonal trend of the product to estimate the sales, make a one-year expected sales plan, according to the sales plan to the supplier Order Form. Establish an intelligent replenishment decision-making system, and set replenishment logic based on parameters such as inventory quantity, arrival time, available days for sale, estimated sales, safety stock, etc. The replenishment decision system can run a replenishment quantity based on all parameters at a fixed time every week, and automatically push it down to the supplier system for order placement.
l In delivery, Right time refers to the time of delivery. Because of the existence of domestic warehouses, the products of the factory can be temporarily stored in the warehouses according to the demand of overseas warehouses. Then in Right time, according to Right cost, send to Right place.
l According to the optimal distribution ratio of historical orders, combined with our actual restrictions, (for example, products under 1lb do not need to be shipped in separate warehouses, new products cannot be shipped NJ, etc.), as well as existing inventory and logistics time, etc. Adjustments to the ratio of excellent distribution warehouses.
l Before warehousing, the priority conditions of different products must be considered (such as LA for products less than 1lb, LA for new products less than 50pcs, etc.) and restrictions (such as oversized items cannot be sent NJ).
l When performing warehousing, you can first exclude products that do not require logical warehousing, such as new products, based on priority conditions. New products only need to be sent to a fixed warehouse, or arranged in a fixed proportion to different warehouses. After excluding the priority, the products are classified according to the restriction conditions. If you cannot send NJ for oversized items, the warehouse selection will be limited to LA and GA in the calculation of the warehouse splitting logic. Finally, according to the above conditions, the final logical calculation of the warehouse is performed, and the logical calculation is performed according to the time of shipment to different warehouses, the inventory of the overseas warehouse + the first haul, and the number of shipments, so that the final result of the warehouse is more At the time when the warehouses are all arriving, the inventory of multiple warehouses is closest to the optimal distribution ratio.
Examples of replenishment strategies
l For new products, we need to have an expectation. On the one hand, this expectation is based on the experience of the operating staff and the prediction of the conversion rate after the selling point is presented. On the other hand, it is based on the competitor’s opinion during market research. Research and research to find out what is the average monthly sales of competing products within half a year of launching, combined with the overall growth of this category on the target platform from the time the competing products are launched to the present, and comprehensively judge the estimated monthly sales of our products after the launch Stocking up, for example, the estimated average monthly sales of a new product is 100 pieces, the production cycle is 30 days, and the logistics cycle is 30 days. The first order can be stocked for 2 to 3 months, that is, 200 to 300 pieces, but two at a time One order, delivered in two batches. After the first batch is produced within 30 days, it will be shipped on the shelf 30 days later. The estimated amount will be sent at least 45-60 days to prevent out-of-stock caused by a surge in sales. After two months of production and delivery, the goods will arrive 30 days after shipping. Send the remaining amount for sale and just be able to pick up. This will not occupy the factory's storage capacity, nor affect the order, billing period, payment to delivery, Issues such as advance payment do not affect operational sales;
l After the first trial sale is completed, replenishment is required. There is a clearer method and logic
for the replenishment amount ; l What we generally call replenishment, It is to supplement the parts of overseas warehouses that are not enough to support sales, so that sales can continue. But the difficulty of replenishment is not only to calculate that the part of the inventory that needs insufficient sales cannot be out of stock, but also to ensure that there will be no replenishment, and there will be no overstock inventory, slow-moving inventory or unnecessary storage fees, so we actually When replenishing goods, we are looking for a balance between these two requirements, which must be both. Therefore, when we replenish the goods, we need to consider that when the sales of overseas warehouses in the warehouse often cannot meet the "production time + bulk shipping time", we must quickly place a purchase demand order. The quantity of purchase orders placed is usually calculated as follows:
l Sales demand quantity during replenishment period (monthly sales (estimated monthly average sales during replenishment period, actual monthly sales in the previous months, combined with reference to previous months) The average monthly sales value of the company is finally determined by the experience of the comprehensive operation staff)-Domestic inventory in inventory-Domestic orders in transit-Air and sea freight in transit inventory-Overseas warehouse inventory. In the case of continuous goods, the quantity that needs to be purchased can be calculated like this, but have to be aware of is:
l First estimate the production cycle + air and sea cycle sales according to the current date to estimate the monthly sales volume;
l After filling in the estimated monthly sales volume, judge according to the replenishment logic formula, and compare according to the current US inventory + air and sea in-transit conditions Estimated sales within 45 days from the current date to determine whether there will be out-of-stocks. If the next batch of goods is expected to be out of stock before the arrival, when calculating the "replenishment period sales demand quantity", the out-of-stock time should be discarded, otherwise there will be more replenishment;
l The sales estimate is accurate Rate verification; statistics the estimated monthly sales volume of each salesperson in the past 6 to 12 months and the actual monthly sales volume deviation, analyzes the deviation rate of each salesperson is radical and conservative, and then the sales volume should be measured according to attributes Adjustment;
l When shipping, do we need to send these quantities to overseas warehouses at once? Of course not. For some good cooperation with factories, we can first put part of the goods in the factory (equivalent to production safety stock), or into the Shanghai warehouse, and only reserve one shipment within the shipping cycle in the overseas warehouse. Inventory is enough, and part of it is guaranteed in transit. For example, the shipping cycle is one month, then the inventory in the overseas warehouse only needs to satisfy one month, and the goods in transit for one month. In the above logic, the goods of the "replenishment period sales demand" are placed in the factory or bulk warehouse, so that the overseas warehouse When the goods were sold out in one month, the goods that were in transit for one month arrived just in time, and the goods in the overseas warehouses were met for one month, and the goods in the factory continued to be shipped for one month. The goods produced were calculated according to the previous paragraph. Logic production, reciprocating cycle, which not only guarantees the accuracy of inventory preparation, but also ensures that the storage quantity of overseas warehouses is optimal;