Industry experts interpret the impact of Sino-US trade war on cross-border e-com

First, the event background
On March 22, US President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding against China at the White House. The United States will impose tariffs of about $60 billion of imported goods from China, and has listed more than 1300 taxable products. The United States will levy taxes on Chinese goods in the areas of high-performance medical devices, bio-medicine, new materials, agricultural machinery and equipment, industrial robots, next generation of information technology, new energy vehicles, aviation products, and high-speed rail equipment.
On March 23, China's Ministry of Commerce hit back at Trump's tariff policy by issuing a list of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports and soliciting public opinion on the proposed tariffs on some US imports to balance the tariffs imposed by the United States on imported steel and aluminium products. The list tentatively includes 7 categories and 128 items. According to 2017 statistics, it involves US exports of about US $3 billion to China. China's termination of tax cuts in the United States includes: fresh fruits, dried fruits, nuts, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel tubes, pork, and scrap aluminum.
According to the monitoring data of the E-Commerce Research Center (100EC.CN), the cross-border e-commerce transaction volume in China in the first half of 2017 was 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Among them, the scale of export cross-border e-commerce transactions was 2.75 trillion yuan, and the scale of import cross-border e-commerce transactions was 862.4 billion yuan. In terms of scale, in recent years, the United States has been one of the three major exporters of cross-border e-commerce in China.
Experts opinions: Well-known domestic (Chinese) e-commerce, internet and think tanks - e-commerce research center analysts and special researchers will analyze the impact of the Sino-US trade war on cross-border e-commerce below.
(1) Influential parties
Cao Lei, director and researcher of the E-Commerce Research Center, believes that:
Viewpoint 1: Sino-US trade war has a great impact on cross-border e-commerce import sellers.
From the perspective of importing countries, American goods are currently the most popular among cross-border online shopping consumers in China. The category of counter-attack taxation of the Ministry of Commerce involves cross-border e-commerce import sellers. Scrap aluminum, modified ethanol and seamless steel pipes are all large-scale industrial products. The consumers are domestic large-scale aluminum enterprises, chemical enterprises and industrial enterprises. Fruits including dried fruit and wine, have a great impact on cross-border e-commerce import sellers. It is a bad thing for imported cross-border e-commerce companies engaged in importing fresh fruits and fruits. To take the simplest example, in two months, the estimated price of American cherries will double that of previous years in China. The Sino-US trade war is actually a double-edged sword. This will bring certain impacts on China's export trade and cross-border e-commerce and logistics-related industries.
Whether cross-border imports or exports are on the list of tariff increases between China and the United States, special care will be given to them, and cost will increase substantially. Cross-border exports to the United States are very diverse, and the range of products on the list is large. It is the most lethal to the large-scale layout of US overseas warehouses and Amazon (US). Cross-border import e-commerces should pay attention to nuts, health products, milk powder, and light luxury products in the United States. Currently, nuts and ginseng are on the restricted list in China.
Viewpoint 2: Cross-border e-commerce sellers need to prevent problems before they happen.
As a seller engaged in cross-border e-commerce, overseas sales must inevitably comply with relevant local laws and regulations. Regardless of whether the trade restriction measures are implemented or not, it is necessary to prevent problems in the long-term development of the company. For example, to enhance the competitiveness of our products. Product quality is the foundation, in the current enthusiasm for enjoying life, people are increasingly pursuing the added value of products such as appearance, design, emotional appeal, creativity and more. In addition, the brand more important than the product. Even if a product sells well, the company can't just develop a channel for selling goods, but they need to rely on the development of the brand in order to increase competitiveness.
Again, we must attach importance to intellectual property rights. This time the U.S. trade restrictions have repeatedly raised the issue of intellectual property infringement, and some vendors have also been subjected to small red flags on Wish, Amazon and other platforms. light products were removed, and heavy stores closed. Local government will also punish enterprises, so enterprises want to develop healthily, we must pay attention to intellectual property rights. Products must be protected from infringing intellectual property rights. The US restrictions on trade measures have repeatedly raised the issue of infringement of intellectual property rights. Some sellers have also received small red flags on platforms such as Wish and Amazon. Small products are removed and stores closed. The local government will also punish enterprises. Therefore, if enterprises want to develop healthily, they must pay attention to intellectual property rights. Sellers must avoid products that infringe on intellectual property rights.
Li Pengbo, a research fellow at the E-Commerce Research Center and a partner of Tongtuo Technology Group, believes that:
US taxation has a greater impact on export e-commerce. The advantage of “Made in China” is challenged.
The United States will impose large-scale tariffs on Chinese goods, which will have a huge impact on cross-border e-commerce as a whole. Especially for exporting cross-border e-commerce companies based on the US market, if this piece is really taxed, then the entire cross-border e-commerce company that exports to the United States faces a high tax burden. This undoubtedly brings pressure on this cost advantage of "Made in China". On the other hand, because many large-scale cross-border e-commerce companies are not only doing the US market, but also the markets of many developed countries such as Europe and Western Europe, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, etc. and in recent years, such as the rise of emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, for large-scale export cross-border e-commerce and integrated business, the Trump administration's taxation policy has limited impact on them. Trump currently only affects the US business in these large-scale cross-border e-commerce companies.
He Xuming, a special researcher at the E-Commerce Research Center and chairman of Siyiou, believes that: The US tariffs on some Chinese products have a greater impact on the relevant B2B enterprises. I don't think it will have a big impact on China's cross-border e-commerce exports as a whole. The amount of Chinese goods involved in taxation amounted to $60 billion, a small proportion of China's exports of goods in 2017 amounted to $15.33 trillion yuan. But for B2B e-commerce enterprises, if the United States levies taxes on China, including technology robots, new generation of information technology and other fields, and most of the customers are mainly in the United States, it may have a greater impact. It is suggested that such enterprises should expand to other countries and regions in the world and minimize risks.
(2) Less influence
Dunhuang network:
Opinion: Sino-US trade war has little effect on the small-scale digital trade of Dunhuang.
Wang Shuzhen, founder and CEO of Dunhuang Network, said that the business format of Dunhuang Network is fragmented and is small-scale international trade, and the main impact of this Sino-US trade war is large-scale trade. Further, for cross-border digital trade, small orders are almost unaffected, and tariffs only account for a small portion of the cost of small cross-border channels for domestic cross-border e-commerce, and the impact on channels is very limited. On the contrary, large channels like Wal-Mart will increase the cost of purchasing, which will lead to more fragmentation of small and medium-sized trade. From the analysis of cost structure, the advantage of cross-border market always exists. The cross-border digital trade model of Dunhuang Network has its target audiences distributed in various countries with less impact.
According to the information provided by the current US Trade Representative Office, the United States imposes a 25% tariff on certain Chinese commodities, including: aviation products, modern railways, and new energy vehicles. There are also differences between the main categories of Dunhuang Net and the Sino-US trade warfare categories. For Chinese companies, the use of digital trading platforms such as Dunhuang Network can better distribute orders in the global market, rather than focusing on a certain country, instead prompting companies to further think about making better use of the global coverage platform such as Dunhuang.
The goal of Dunhuang is to market products worldwide, not only for Chinese products, but also for global markets. Dunhuang enables small and medium-sized enterprises from all over the world to enter China and even the global market through the Internet. This is the future. Everyone wants to see a balanced trade, and Dunhuang is also determined to assume the image of a business ambassador, empowering SMEs around the world.
Cross-border communication
Opinion: The Sino-US trade war has little impact on cross-border communication in the short-term.
Cross-border communication announced that according to relevant information, the United States will impose tariffs on goods mainly including: aviation products, modern railways, new energy vehicles and high-tech products. The products sold by the company to the US are mainly 3C products (Computer, communication and consumer electronics), clothing and household products. The category overlap is very low. The unit price of the company's sales of goods to the United States is much lower than the US import tax-free amount of 800 US dollars.The unit price of the company's merchandise to the United States is far below the US $800 tax-free standard. In addition, the company's cross-border trade is sent by direct domestic mail.
In the medium and long term, the U.S. tax on some imports from China will further increase the cost of U.S. retail companies, the company has its own B2C cross-border e-commerce channels, the tax policy will further highlight the company's channel cost advantage, will bring more business opportunities for the company. The company's business is oriented to the global market, and the regional market is highly replaceable. The company will further expand its market to other countries and regions.
From Hugo net